Metaculus - May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3.

 
MetaculusMetaculus - Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.

In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ... Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence.Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate predictions that help …I chose all questions from the Metaculus Forecasting AI Progress that have already been resolved and have more than 5 upvotes. This cutoff is ultimately arbitrary but I felt like many questions below it were confusing or already answered by other predictions. In total this leaves 22 questions that I put into four categories: compute, arxiv ...Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.Dumbledores_Army. commented on May 10, 2022, 2:56 AM. The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy in the UK has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020.Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Tournaments. Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes. Learn how tournaments are scored. Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...on Aug 13, 2022, 12:14 PM. NASA prepares return to the moon with new mission set for August launch. Fifty-three years after the historic landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, the new mission to orbit the moon is tentatively set to begin on Aug. 29, according to agency officials. Artemis I will be an uncrewed test-launch …Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...Jun 13, 2011 · 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ... This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this … Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map Jun 24, 2023, 7:21 AM. There are several scenarios, this is why I update my previous prediction from 85% to 65% and not further down - This might not be an outright coup attempt - The coup might fail (most coups do) - Even if it is somewhat successful, Putin might remain president of Russia or of part of Russia. 3.This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.Medals reward Metaculus users for excellence in forecasting accuracy, insightful comment writing, and engaging question writing. Medals are awarded based on a user’s placement in the Leaderboards. There are separate leaderboards for each medal category ( Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, Comments, and Question Writing ), and each leaderboard ...The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.Metaculus is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time, seeking to assess their generality and the overall shape of their capabilities. We would publicize the event widely among the AI ...These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. … Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.9 10. Probability distribution of the Metaculus community prediction of the implied doubling-time (in number of days) is over the period from 20th of Jan till to the last … Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ...While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition.Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...9 10. Probability distribution of the Metaculus community prediction of the implied doubling-time (in number of days) is over the period from 20th of Jan till to the last …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ...Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...Metaculus is a technology company that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. It hosts forecasting competitions, publishes research, and collaborates with partners on various …The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ... This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.This question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST. The relevant question has the following resolution criteria: For these purposes we will thus define "an artificial general …provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions.Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... Avoid overconfidence. Overconfidence is a common finding in the forecasting research literature, and is found to be present in a 2016 analysis of Metaculus predictions. Overconfidence comes in many forms, such as overconfidence in intuitive judgements, explicit models, or (your or other's) domain-specific expertise. Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details.Metaculus is a platform for forecasting and modeling future events, trends, and impacts in four main topic areas: biosecurity, AI, nuclear security, and climate change. You can join tournaments, see research updates, and partner with …Dumbledores_Army. commented on May 10, 2022, 2:56 AM. The latest date this could resolve is 2150, ie someone born in the year 2000 lives to the age of 150. I don't want to bet against a hundred and thirty years of technology. For comparison, life expectancy in the UK has gone from 45.8 in 1890 to 81.1 in 2020.Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ...Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of ...While Metaculus has decided not to enter this competition full-fledged (since it would distract from out own focus), we have set up the machinery to download questions and make predictions, and will put some live on Metaculus that we think might be of interest to our community. We'll then feed back the Metaculus prediction to the competition.Metaculus and MQL5 had the highest errors on these forecasts. Time Is Of The Essence. For a majority of the indicators, excluding GDP and Retail Sales, Metaculus provided forecasts an average of 36 days before competitors. A regression analysis did not reveal a statistically significant relationship between …Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Metaculus and Rachel Aicher, Adjunct Lecturer in Political Science at Hunter College, City University of New York, are excited to announce the results of a forecasting session on risks to the 2020 U.S. election! We solicited probabilistic predictions about risks to the U.S. general election on 3 November 2020, …Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Metaculus. AI Forecasts. required field . username must be at most 200 characters . required field .Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...An unexpected number of cases of mpox (monkeypox) have begun appearing in multiple countries since early May 2022, prompting expressions of concern from some public health agencies. This project hosts all …The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Background Info. Following Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including both air and ground assault. This has led numerous countries to claim Israel has went too far, and threaten to intervene; other countries, meanwhile, expressed support for Israel, and brought military assets to …This will resolve on the basis of the mean R0 that is estimated for the Omicron variant according to the first credible systematic review that estimates this value. Such a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate R0 estimates from at least 3 studies. An example is the systematic review by Liu and …Metaculus aims to help the Virginia Department of Health make these decisions by forecasting how COVID-19 will affect Virginia and its residents as children return to school. The first round is currently open, with most questions closing at the end of August. You can start anytime, just dive into the forecasting questions listed below!Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. In practice, Metaculus restricts binary predictions to be between 0.1% and 99.9%, and continuous pdfs to be between 0.01 and ~35, leading to the scores above. The empirical scores are based on all scores observed on all resolved Metaculus questions, as of November 2023. Note that the above describes the Baseline score at a single point in time.Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... This question will resolves as Yes if, at any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025, a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one ...This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this …As part of our ongoing celebration of achieving 1 million predictions on Metaculus, we’re hosting a series of talks this week on topics of forecasting and data science. The talks are all open to the public and we hope to see you at some (or all!) of these. Talks are linked and recordings are made available in this discussion post.Blackbeard's lodge, Capri restaurant burr ridge, Curry mansion inn florida, Walmart bridgeview, Ock auto, Pga tour super store, Highclere castle, Gold jm bullion, Cherry payment, Kan kan, Daytona beach newspaper, Paul anka, Red hook winery, Figaro's italian pizza

Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, …. North bergen township

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The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …Mar 31, 2022 · In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3.provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …Pending. This Multiple Choice question now needs to be approved by community moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …Feb 25, 2022 · This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ... As of 12 March 2021, I am officially retired from Metaculus: I won't be forecasting on new questions and I won't be updating my existing forecasts. Expect my brier and log scores to deteriorate rapidly. I continue to be a big fan of Metaculus and the forecasting community—I just lack the time to participate regularly.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.On March 9th, 2021, U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Philip Davidson expressed concern about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Then on May 1st, 2021, The Economist featured a cover story calling Taiwan “the most dangerous place on Earth.”. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec 11, 2021.May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. Background Info. Following Hamas' attack on Israel in October 2023, Israel has launched a campaign against Hamas in Gaza, including both air and ground assault. This has led numerous countries to claim Israel has went too far, and threaten to intervene; other countries, meanwhile, expressed support for Israel, and brought military assets to …This question will resolves as Yes if, at any time between November 1, 2021 to January 1, 2025, a majority of U.S. IC organizations that favor either the natural origin or lab leak hypotheses are said to favor the explanation that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab in Hubei. This means that only the IC organizations that expressly favor one ...Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. M etaculus Questions Metaculus collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. Suggest a new figure. On this page, comment with your suggestions for new public figures you would like to see Metaculus track, and provide other feedback on this experimental tool.Summary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.Jun 15, 2021 · The Nuclear Risk Tournament: This now consists entirely of calibration questions that close by December 31, 2023 and have resolution dates no later than January 31, 2024. The original prize money of $2,500 (plus donations) is now entirely devoted to this tournament. You can find the questions and leaderboard below. Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. 2x Entrepreneur. Tech executive. Traveler, foodie, relentless optimizer. Values-driven… · Experience: Effective Institutions Project · Education: New York University · Location: Santa Monica ...May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By …Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence.This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire main island of Taiwan is under de facto control of the People's Republic of China. For the purposes of this question, China will be considered to "launch a full-scale invasion" if the event is described as such by both The New …provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.I chose all questions from the Metaculus Forecasting AI Progress that have already been resolved and have more than 5 upvotes. This cutoff is ultimately arbitrary but I felt like many questions below it were confusing or already answered by other predictions. In total this leaves 22 questions that I put into four categories: compute, arxiv ... Here, you can judge for yourself, with all the information you need at your fingertips. This is Public Figure Predictions, an experimental feature on Metaculus that collects testable claims made by public figures in the news and compares them to our community forecasts. We appreciate when public figures make clear, public, testable claims ... How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...Nov 2, 2016 · Laughlin said the ideal Metaculus member is a well informed “science nerd” who has a passion for discovery and a desire to learn. “President Obama is kind of our target audience,” Laughlin noted. The emphasis on science and technology is what separates Metaculus from other crowd-sourced prediction sites, Laughlin added. Metaculus is a technology company that aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. It hosts forecasting competitions, publishes research, and collaborates with partners on various …AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective …But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later.Bio. I'm a researcher at MIT's Computer Science and AI lab, Associate Director of Epoch, an amateur forecaster and a Metaculus admin (since 2018). I sometimes organize forecasting efforts on Computing and AI. Please tag me if edits or resolutions are in order, or if you'd like me to review pending questions!Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ...The Metaculus community currently thinks that quantum computers will factor the first previously unfactored RSA number in around 2046: Breaking 256 bit ECC is a problem that would require roughly the same amount of quantum computing technology and hardware, so the forecast on the following question should not be too different unless we …Mar 15, 2023 · If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4. on Aug 13, 2022, 12:14 PM. NASA prepares return to the moon with new mission set for August launch. Fifty-three years after the historic landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, the new mission to orbit the moon is tentatively set to begin on Aug. 29, according to agency officials. Artemis I will be an uncrewed test-launch …Metaculus has developed its own style and norms for writing and submitting questions. Heeding these best-practices will be appreciated by Metaculus forecasters and Moderators alike. Questions which don't follow these best-practices may be rejected. Write in a neutral and objective tone.Feb 25, 2022 · This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv's raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022. Background Info. Russian forces are currently making their way toward the capital ... These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution. The Community Prediction was hidden for 1 hour, and revealed on Dec …Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. At least 1,000 military personnel from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule. Background Info. Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective …From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Prediction markets. Manifold Market seems to think, that there is an 62% chance that GPT-5 will come out before 2025. Similarly, Metaculus puts the announcement date of GPT-5 to Sept 2024: [2] So it seems like the forecasting sites expect a strong deviation from the historical trend. Note, that if GPT-5 takes as long as GPT-4 did, we …The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May ...The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s …The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total …Metaculus Scoring System. Note: This page is about the obsolete Metaculus Points. In November 2023, we switched to using Baseline and Peer scores, but this page …From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …. Joyful journey hot springs, Cody wyoming rodeo, Sda ch, 105.1 fm new york, Trulyfree, Watch oppenheimer near me, Little shop of magic, Richmond funnybone, Signature aviation.